Fear and Loathing in Michigan and Florida

Howard Dean's refusal to lead us out of this mess he's created in Florida and Michigan has set the stage for Sen. Obama to drag his heels in an effort to disenfranchise millions of Democrats in those two states.  States we'll need if we're going to win the general election.

Obama seems to have a pattern of keeping people out of the electoral process going right back to his very first race for the IL Senate, when he did all he could to prevent the voters from having a say by keeping his opponent off the ballot.  This pattern of Chicago smack-down politics continues in FL & MI.

Now he's throwing aside 2 million Democrats in these key states in an effort to push Hillary aside - it's all about him as usual. No concern for what this will mean for our party (including the Democrats down-ticket) when thousands and thousands of Democrats stay home in November.  No concern as to what he's saying to them (you don't matter to me). No concern for how this will affect our party's chances in November in these key states.

Add to that his efforts to convince everyone that it's time for Hillary to drop out of this race before the last 10 states have had a say in this.  This shows us he's willing to disenfranchise the voters in those states too. I'm seeing a definite pattern here guys and it's not a pretty one... Obama cares about himself - NOT our party or the Democrats who vote in our elections.

I won't presume to know what's in Obama's heart, but if I were to hazard a guess I'd have to say it's almost as if he's afraid to face Hillary in a fair election. It's almost as if he knows that if the playing field were level, he'd have his backside handed to him, so he does whatever it takes to tilt that field to his advantage and to hell with the Democrats who're caught in whatever games he plays along the way.

In the case of FL & MI, he's doing all he can to make sure of a few things...

That the delegates chosen during the January primaries aren't seated.

And

That it's impossible for the states to hold new primaries - he knows the republican controlled legislatures won't act as long as they have his refusal to allow new votes as an excuse.

Failure to seat the current delegates or hold new primaries (he hopes) will leave FL and MI Democrats with few options but from what I understand, he's hoping for something along these lines...

Dividing up the currently allotted delegates in a way that gives him more than he would have initially gotten, thereby ignoring the wishes of the Democrats in MI & FL.

Chucking it all and holding caucuses in states that are primary states.

Caucuses have consistently favored BO - we all know that. Whether it's due to the bullying and dirty tricks that go on in these caucuses, or the fact that Hillary's supporters are routinely shut out of these votes simply because they can't make it to the caucus site at the set place and time (usually in the evenings), the caucus states usually go to him.

The elderly who can't drive at night.

Shift workers who can't get away from work in the evenings.

Waiters and waitresses who work the dinner hour.

Parents who can't get childcare so they can go to their local caucus.

They're all shut out of having their voices heard in caucus sates. So he has every interest in making sure MI & FL can't seat the delegates they chose through primaries, and don't hold new primaries.

He wants to rig things in the states in a sad effort to disenfranchise my family in Michigan so he can steal a few delegates from Hillary.

Now I worked the phone banks on primary day in OH & TX and  I spent the day (12 hours of it) calling Texas to explain how things would work down there and I wrote up some notes afterward. Take a look...

I spent all day Tuesday calling voters in Texas, explaining how their system works when it comes to choosing a presidential nominee for our party. It's an open primary. Anyone can turn up and vote to help determine who our champion will be in the general election. The party big-wigs decided they want to make the voters turn up not once but twice to make their vote count to the fullest extent possible. The primary counts for 70% and the precinct conventions (aka caucuses) account for the final 30%. Polls were set to close at 7pm - machines would be cleared out and the convention packets would be released to the folks running that part of the show at around 7:15.

Now the thing about Texas is that this is system is geared so that working folks, the elderly, and people who have responsibilities during the evenings are cut out of the second half of the process - their vote basically only counts as 70% of that of someone with a more flexible schedule, can get out / drive at night and are healthy enough to make it to the caucuses. This cuts out a lot of Hillary's core constituency and should favor Obama and YET he still managed to lose the state to her. We were calling even after the polls were set to close because there were still long lines of people waiting to get in to vote in the primaries. We asked people we know voted for Hillary to get back to their polling place to sign in for Hillary at their precinct convention (caucus). It broke my heart to hear one senior citizen after another tell me it wasn't possible for them to get back - they couldn't drive or couldn't get out after dark etc.  Or they were 88 and not able to get around so well any more.

The frustration in their voices said it all - the caucus system is NOT fair to them, to folks who work the night shift, wait tables in the evenings, or to parents who can't get babysitters for their young kids so they could return and log in the other 30% of their vote. Caucuses are heavily weighted toward affluent, young and healthy people with flexible schedules.  Texas is especially unfair in that they make you turn up twice to get your entire vote counted. It's almost as if BO's supporters have a built-in 30% advantage and yet Hillary was STILL able to beat him at this screwed up game.  That and she was outspent 3 to 1 in that state.

This was his third chance at locking this thing up and he blew it - again. What's that say about his ability to win in the general election? I hope to hell they don't replace the results in FL & MI with new votes in a caucus - it would so disenfranchise thousands and thousands of voters Democrats - not just once but for a SECOND time. They've got to hold out for the seating of those delegates. NO ifs, ands or buts.

One other thing about Texas...  I was also working the phones the Sunday before primary day, talking with voters in Texas. I spoke with one woman who told me that BO's camp is actively seeking out support from Republicans in Texas. How did she know this you may ask? She said her husband was a Republican - he passed away 2 or 3 years ago but she'd received 3 calls from BO's camp in the past 24 hours, asking that he cross over and vote in the Democratic primary on March 4th.  Three calls - that's no accident folks. And neither was the message they were sending out to Texas Republicans.

He was reaching out to Democrats in Texas, just as he has in any other state that's had an open ballot.  Remember Nevada and those horrid flyers?

Big Tent Democrat over at Talk Left posted something on that Nevada flyer when the story broke, and he closes his post with the following...

As I have said before, Obama is a fighter for Obama. He is not a fighter for the Democratic Party or Democratic values. This flyer is emblematic of everything that is wrong with the Obama campaign. Be a Democrat FOR A DAY. For Obama. But not for the Democratic Party or for Democratic values.

Back on Feb. 28th (before Hillary's big wins on March 4th),
Christopher Beam of Slate posted a great write-up of how the votes have broken down so far.  Take a look...

It's well-known that Barack Obama's success has depended largely on independent and Republican voters. The corollary to that, however, has been less thoroughly reported: Obama is losing among Democrats.

Over at the Perfect World, Cal Lanier crunches the numbers and finds that Obama, despite being ahead among pledged delegates, has fewer total votes among people who identify themselves as Democrats. (He has 7,392,809 votes; Clinton has 8,229,063.) That gives Clinton as lead with 52 percent of Democrats.

It helps you understand why the party gives so much power to its 796 superdelegates. If they didn't, independents and Republicans could essentially hijack their election. It also makes you wonder whether Clinton should start citing this number, if she maintains her lead through the convention in August. Even if Obama leads in the popular vote and among pledged delegates, it might disturb party gray beards to learn that the nominee has essentially been chosen by outsiders.

Hillary's not only running strong after her big wins in states where BO should have won handily, but she's actually ahead in the popular vote if you go by the DEMOCRATS who took part in our party's primaries and caucuses. Updated with the results in early Feb. (where she won 3 of the 4 states up for grabs that day) and the numbers look like this....

Hillary 10,166,262
Obama 8,973,276

Giving Hillary an advantage among Democrats over Obama by a margin of 1,192,986 votes

Now as the Slate article notes, these are slightly rough numbers as they're based on exit polls, but still... well over a million vote lead among Democrats voting in our party's primaries and caucuses. If I were BO I wouldn't tout that elected delegate count too loudly if I were him. Obama can't have it both ways. He can't actively recruit votes from outside our party and then say that Hillary can't look to our party's super delegates to help put her over the top. Neither candidate will win this thing purely on the popular vote so the supers will have a role to play in determining our nominee. BO claims to be ahead in the actual popular vote but when you take out the votes by people who some have noted may be actively working to throw our elections to what they see as our weaker candidate, then Hillary's winning this thing hands down.

Hillary's beating Obama among Democratic voters by over a million votes.

Now that right there would be a compelling argument for siding with Hillary if I were a super delegate.

Obama had better get used to Hillary being in this race. She's not dropping for some very real reasons. She's going to win and win big in Pennsylvania. Then she'll go on to take all the state's she's running strong in AND take North Carolina and Oregon.

You heard it hear first folks.